UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lawler vs Souza

2,180

CageRank

WINNER
Souza

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
59% chance Souza
WILL WIN

2,245

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ronaldo Souza
Much better submission offense 9.0 vs 6.3 Around 45% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.4 Around 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly fast finishes 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly harder to hit 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 183 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Robbie Lawler
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.3 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger jaw 9.9 vs 9.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.5 Almost the same
Slightly younger 35 years vs 37 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Souza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lawler’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ronaldo
Souza
In 11:23, how much damage will he do? Souza Lawler
Significant Strikes47
Souza's good striking offense is matched by Lawler's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:23
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Souza's excellent takedown offense will dominate Lawler's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:23
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Souza is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Souza has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Souza is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lawler on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Souza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Robbie
Lawler
In 11:23, how much damage will he do? Lawler Souza
Significant Strikes35
Lawler's good striking offense won't be a factor against Souza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:23
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Lawler's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Souza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:23
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lawler has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lawler is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lawler is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Souza 8.7
fighter Lawler 8.8
Great striking by Lawler
44 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs MacDonald
9 strikes Feb 23, 2013 vs Koscheck
8 strikes Dec 04, 2010 vs Lindland

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Souza 9.2
fighter Lawler 7.4
Great takedowns by Souza
2 takedowns Jan 12, 2013 vs Herman
4 takedowns Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
3 takedowns Jun 15, 2008 vs Miller

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Souza 7.3
fighter Lawler 9.3
Great knockouts by Lawler
Round 1 Feb 23, 2013 vs Koscheck
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Manhoef
Round 2 Jul 23, 2005 vs Vitale

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Souza 9.0
fighter Lawler 6.3
Great submissions by Souza
Round 1 May 18, 2013 vs Camozzi
Round 3 Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
Round 1 Dec 19, 2009 vs Lindland

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Souza 9.4
fighter Lawler 8.8
Fast finishes by Souza
167 seconds Sep 04, 2013 vs Okami
217 seconds May 18, 2013 vs Camozzi
720 seconds Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR3 SUB
XR1 SUB
2,0482,060
2,0002,108
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Souza
legend Lawler
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus