UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Carano vs Evinger

1,782

CageRank

WINNER
Evinger

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
53% chance Evinger
WILL WIN

1,801

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Tonya Evinger
Significantly stronger jaw 8.7 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.9 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 8.3 vs 8.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 7.2 vs 7.0 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 7.8 vs 7.7 Almost the same
Advantages for Gina Carano
Significantly better striker 8.5 vs 8.0 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.3 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Taller 173 cm vs 170 cm Almost the same
Slightly heavier 142 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Evinger on the attack Our prediction about how she’ll perform against Carano’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tonya
Evinger
In 10:30, how much damage will she do? Evinger Carano
Significant Strikes31
Evinger's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Carano's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 94 Significant Strikes in 10:30
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Evinger's average takedown offense is matched by Carano's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:30
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on her feet
If she wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Evinger is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Evinger is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Evinger is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Carano on the attack Our prediction about how she’ll perform against Evinger’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gina
Carano
In 10:30, how much damage will she do? Carano Evinger
Significant Strikes42
Carano's average striking offense is matched by Evinger's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 94 Significant Strikes in 10:30
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Carano's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Evinger's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:30
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on her feet
If she wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Carano is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Carano is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Carano is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Evinger 8.0
fighter Carano 8.5
Great striking by Carano
37 strikes Oct 04, 2008 vs Kobold
35 strikes Feb 10, 2007 vs Kedzie
46 strikes Sep 15, 2006 vs Sexton

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Evinger 7.3
fighter Carano 7.7
Great knockouts by Carano
Round 2 May 31, 2008 vs Young
Round 2 Sep 15, 2006 vs Sexton
Round 1 Jun 10, 2006 vs Pestova

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Evinger 7.2
fighter Carano 7.0
Great submissions by Evinger
Round 1 Sep 23, 2011 vs Rodriguez
Round 1 Jan 25, 2008 vs Kedzie
Round 1 Oct 27, 2006 vs Reynolds

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Evinger 7.8
fighter Carano 7.7
Fast finishes by Evinger
117 seconds Sep 23, 2011 vs Rodriguez
496 seconds Jul 17, 2010 vs Jenkins
103 seconds Jan 25, 2008 vs Kedzie
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 15, 2007EliteXC - Uprising
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
DECX
1,7101,661
1,7531,618
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Evinger
legend Carano
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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