UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nagata vs Aoki

1,695

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
96% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 6.5 More than 50% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 6.8 Around 40% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.8 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.1 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much taller 180 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Much better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.2 Around 20% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly younger 34 years vs 43 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Katsuhiko Nagata
Significantly better striker 7.9 vs 7.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 6.6 vs 6.1 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nagata’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 5:20, how much damage will he do? Aoki Nagata
Significant Strikes10
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Nagata's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 48 Significant Strikes in 5:20
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nagata's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:20
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nagata on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Katsuhiko
Nagata
In 5:20, how much damage will he do? Nagata Aoki
Significant Strikes6
Nagata's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 48 Significant Strikes in 5:20
Below average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Nagata's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:20
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nagata is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nagata is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nagata is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Nagata 7.9
Great striking by Nagata
25 strikes Mar 15, 2008 vs Oumakhanov

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Nagata 8.1
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Nagata 6.6
Great knockouts by Nagata
Round 1 Dec 31, 2006 vs Katsumura

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Nagata 6.5
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Nagata 6.8
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 15, 2008Dream 4
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XDEC
1,7042,101
1,6952,110
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Nagata
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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