UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nagata vs Ribeiro

1,695

CageRank

WINNER
Ribeiro

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
74% chance Ribeiro
WILL WIN

1,875

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Vitor Ribeiro
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 6.5 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.0 vs 6.8 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Significantly better takedown defense 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.3 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 8.4 vs 7.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 39 years vs 44 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better striker 8.1 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Taller 173 cm vs 170 cm Almost the same
Heavier hands 6.8 vs 6.6 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Katsuhiko Nagata
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Ribeiro on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nagata’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Vitor
Ribeiro
In 10:56, how much damage will he do? Ribeiro Nagata
Significant Strikes35
Ribeiro's average striking offense is matched by Nagata's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:56
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Ribeiro's average takedown offense is matched by Nagata's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:56
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ribeiro is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Ribeiro has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Ribeiro is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nagata on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ribeiro’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Katsuhiko
Nagata
In 10:56, how much damage will he do? Nagata Ribeiro
Significant Strikes38
Nagata's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Ribeiro's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:56
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nagata's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ribeiro's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:56
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nagata is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Nagata is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nagata has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Ribeiro 8.1
fighter Nagata 7.9
Great striking by Ribeiro
9 strikes Apr 05, 2009 vs Nagata

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Ribeiro 6.8
fighter Nagata 6.6
Great knockouts by Ribeiro
Round 1 Apr 05, 2009 vs Nagata
Round 1 Nov 03, 2001 vs Kohler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Ribeiro 8.4
fighter Nagata 6.5
Great submissions by Ribeiro
Round 1 Sep 30, 2006 vs Mohamed
Round 2 Dec 14, 2003 vs Hansen
Round 2 Jul 05, 2002 vs Hurley

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Ribeiro 8.0
fighter Nagata 6.8
Fast finishes by Ribeiro
267 seconds Sep 30, 2006 vs Mohamed
558 seconds Sep 10, 2005 vs Silva
457 seconds Dec 14, 2003 vs Hansen
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 5, 2009Dream 8
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XR2 SUB
1,6152,015
1,6062,024
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Ribeiro
legend Nagata
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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