UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Coleman vs Rua

1,889

CageRank

WINNER
Rua

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
68% chance Rua
WILL WIN

2,020

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.3 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much younger 36 years vs 53 years More than 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 8.4 vs 7.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.7 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 193 cm vs 191 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Mark Coleman
Much better takedown defense 10.0 vs 8.1 Around 25% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.3 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.5 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Coleman’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 9:15, how much damage will he do? Rua Coleman
Significant Strikes42
Rua's excellent striking offense is matched by Coleman's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 83 Significant Strikes in 9:15
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Rua's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Coleman's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:15
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Coleman on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mark
Coleman
In 9:15, how much damage will he do? Coleman Rua
Significant Strikes22
Coleman's average striking offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 83 Significant Strikes in 9:15
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Coleman's excellent takedown offense will dominate Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:15
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Coleman is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Coleman is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Coleman is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Rua 9.3
fighter Coleman 8.3
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Rua 8.3
fighter Coleman 9.4
Great takedowns by Coleman
2 takedowns Feb 26, 2006 vs Rua
3 takedowns Jun 08, 2003 vs Frye
2 takedowns May 01, 2000 vs Vovchanchyn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Rua 9.3
fighter Coleman 7.3
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Rua 6.5
fighter Coleman 7.5
Great submissions by Coleman
Round 1 Oct 09, 2005 vs Voorn
Round 2 May 01, 2000 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Feb 07, 1997 vs Severn

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Rua 8.8
fighter Coleman 8.1
Fast finishes by Rua
113 seconds Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
215 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Machida
268 seconds Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 17, 2009UFC 93
team
VS
team
XR3 KO
XR2 KO
1,9322,034
1,8962,070
February 26, 2006Pride 31
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR2 KO
1,8682,092
1,9472,014
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Rua
legend Coleman
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus