UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Arlovski vs Rothwell

2,086

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Arlovski

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
69% chance Arlovski
WILL WIN

1,950

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Andrei Arlovski
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Ben Rothwell
Significantly heavier 262 lbs vs 241 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 204 cm vs 196 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission offense 7.2 vs 6.6 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 7.5 vs 7.2 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Slightly fast finishes 8.4 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Slightly younger 36 years vs 38 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Arlovski on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rothwell’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Andrei
Arlovski
In 13:15, how much damage will he do? Arlovski Rothwell
Significant Strikes79
Arlovski's excellent striking offense will dominate Rothwell's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 119 Significant Strikes in 13:15
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Arlovski's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Rothwell's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 13:15
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Arlovski has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Arlovski is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Arlovski is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rothwell on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Arlovski’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ben
Rothwell
In 13:15, how much damage will he do? Rothwell Arlovski
Significant Strikes60
Rothwell's good striking offense may be a factor against Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 119 Significant Strikes in 13:15
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Rothwell's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 13:15
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rothwell has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rothwell is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rothwell is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Arlovski 9.0
fighter Rothwell 8.7
Great striking by Arlovski
52 strikes Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
2 strikes Oct 07, 2005 vs Buentello
9 strikes Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Arlovski 7.2
fighter Rothwell 7.5
Great takedowns by Rothwell
5 takedowns Jun 12, 2010 vs Yvel
1 takedown Apr 29, 2006 vs Soszynski

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Arlovski 9.0
fighter Rothwell 8.5
Great knockouts by Arlovski
Round 3 Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
Round 1 Oct 07, 2005 vs Buentello
Round 1 Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Arlovski 6.6
fighter Rothwell 7.2
Great submissions by Rothwell
Round 2 May 19, 2007 vs Fulton
Round 1 Oct 04, 2002 vs Fulton
Round 1 Feb 16, 2002 vs Schall

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Arlovski 8.2
fighter Rothwell 8.4
Fast finishes by Rothwell
70 seconds Apr 21, 2012 vs Schaub
491 seconds May 19, 2007 vs Fulton
300 seconds Oct 04, 2002 vs Fulton
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 19, 2008Affliction - Banned
team
VS
team
R3 KOX
XR2 KO
2,0082,094
2,0702,032
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Arlovski
legend Rothwell
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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