UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Arlovski vs Struve

2,086

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Arlovski

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
64% chance Arlovski
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Andrei Arlovski
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly heavier hands 9.0 vs 8.1 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Stefan Struve
Much taller 213 cm vs 193 cm More than 10% taller
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 196 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.6 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly heavier 264 lbs vs 241 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 29 years vs 38 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Arlovski on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Struve’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Andrei
Arlovski
In 12:29, how much damage will he do? Arlovski Struve
Significant Strikes81
Arlovski's excellent striking offense will dominate Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 112 Significant Strikes in 12:29
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Arlovski's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:29
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Arlovski has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Arlovski is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Arlovski is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Struve on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Arlovski’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Stefan
Struve
In 12:29, how much damage will he do? Struve Arlovski
Significant Strikes46
Struve's average striking offense is matched by Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 112 Significant Strikes in 12:29
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Struve's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:29
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Struve has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Struve is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Struve is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Arlovski 9.0
fighter Struve 8.4
Great striking by Arlovski
52 strikes Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
2 strikes Oct 07, 2005 vs Buentello
9 strikes Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Arlovski 7.2
fighter Struve 7.3
Great takedowns by Struve
1 takedown Feb 15, 2012 vs Herman
1 takedown Dec 12, 2009 vs Buentello
1 takedown Oct 24, 2009 vs Gormley

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Arlovski 9.0
fighter Struve 8.1
Great knockouts by Arlovski
Round 3 Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
Round 1 Oct 07, 2005 vs Buentello
Round 1 Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Arlovski 6.6
fighter Struve 8.0
Great submissions by Struve
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Johnson
Round 2 Oct 01, 2011 vs Barry
Round 1 Oct 24, 2009 vs Gormley

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Arlovski 8.2
fighter Struve 8.8
Fast finishes by Struve
530 seconds Sep 29, 2012 vs Miocic
65 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Johnson
532 seconds Feb 15, 2012 vs Herman
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Arlovski
legend Struve
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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