UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Arlovski vs Johnson

2,086

CageRank

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
72% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

2,249

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Anthony Johnson
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.2 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 9.1 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 9.7 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 32 years vs 37 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly longer reach 198 cm vs 196 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Andrei Arlovski
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 241 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% taller
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Better submission offense 6.6 vs 6.5 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Arlovski’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Anthony
Johnson
In 11:01, how much damage will he do? Johnson Arlovski
Significant Strikes54
Johnson's good striking offense may be a factor against Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:01
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Johnson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:01
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Arlovski on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Andrei
Arlovski
In 11:01, how much damage will he do? Arlovski Johnson
Significant Strikes50
Arlovski's excellent striking offense will dominate Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:01
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Arlovski's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:01
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Arlovski has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Arlovski is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Arlovski is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.9
fighter Arlovski 9.0
Great striking by Arlovski
52 strikes Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
2 strikes Oct 07, 2005 vs Buentello
9 strikes Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 8.7
fighter Arlovski 7.2
Great takedowns by Johnson
4 takedowns Dec 07, 2013 vs Kyle
4 takedowns Mar 26, 2011 vs Hardy
3 takedowns Dec 13, 2008 vs Burns

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 9.7
fighter Arlovski 9.0
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 1 Jan 18, 2014 vs Kyle
Round 1 Nov 03, 2012 vs Linderman
Round 1 Oct 01, 2011 vs Brenneman

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Johnson 6.5
fighter Arlovski 6.6
Great submissions by Arlovski
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Sylvia
Round 1 Nov 17, 2000 vs Brink
Round 1 Apr 09, 2000 vs Tielrooy

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 9.1
fighter Arlovski 8.2
Fast finishes by Johnson
238 seconds Nov 03, 2012 vs Linderman
169 seconds Oct 01, 2011 vs Brenneman
41 seconds Oct 24, 2009 vs Yoshida
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 23, 2013WSOF 2
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XR1 KO
2,0372,091
1,9952,133
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend Arlovski
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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