UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Arlovski vs Matyushenko

2,086

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Arlovski

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
76% chance Arlovski
WILL WIN

1,882

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Andrei Arlovski
Much heavier hands 9.0 vs 7.8 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 241 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 38 years vs 46 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 196 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.2 vs 8.0 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Vladimir Matyushenko
Much stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.2 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission offense 6.8 vs 6.6 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Arlovski on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Matyushenko’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Andrei
Arlovski
In 11:35, how much damage will he do? Arlovski Matyushenko
Significant Strikes66
Arlovski's excellent striking offense will dominate Matyushenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:35
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Arlovski's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Matyushenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:35
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Arlovski has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Arlovski is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Arlovski is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Matyushenko on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Arlovski’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Vladimir
Matyushenko
In 11:35, how much damage will he do? Matyushenko Arlovski
Significant Strikes44
Matyushenko's average striking offense is matched by Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:35
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Matyushenko's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:35
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Matyushenko is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Matyushenko is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Matyushenko has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Arlovski 9.0
fighter Matyushenko 8.4
Great striking by Arlovski
52 strikes Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
2 strikes Oct 07, 2005 vs Buentello
9 strikes Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Arlovski 7.2
fighter Matyushenko 8.4
Great takedowns by Matyushenko
2 takedowns Nov 13, 2010 vs Ferreira
4 takedowns Sep 19, 2009 vs Pokrajac
3 takedowns Jun 29, 2001 vs Kondo

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Arlovski 9.0
fighter Matyushenko 7.8
Great knockouts by Arlovski
Round 3 Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
Round 1 Oct 07, 2005 vs Buentello
Round 1 Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Arlovski 6.6
fighter Matyushenko 6.8
Great submissions by Matyushenko
Round 1 Nov 22, 2002 vs Wiuff
Round 1 Apr 02, 1999 vs Fulton
Round 1 Sep 05, 1997 vs Macias

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Arlovski 8.2
fighter Matyushenko 8.0
Fast finishes by Arlovski
673 seconds Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
47 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Sylvia
119 seconds Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 26, 2003UFC 44
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XDEC
1,6861,948
1,7681,866
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Arlovski
legend Matyushenko
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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