UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Arlovski vs Lesnar

2,086

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Arlovski

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
82% chance Arlovski
WILL WIN

1,820

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Andrei Arlovski
Significantly stronger jaw 9.1 vs 7.8 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.2 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly heavier hands 9.0 vs 7.7 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.1 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 193 cm vs 191 cm Almost the same
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Slightly younger 39 years vs 41 years Around 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Brock Lesnar
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 7.2 Around 30% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.6 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly longer reach 206 cm vs 196 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 264 lbs vs 247 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Arlovski on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lesnar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Andrei
Arlovski
In 9:17, how much damage will he do? Arlovski Lesnar
Significant Strikes48
Arlovski's excellent striking offense will dominate Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 84 Significant Strikes in 9:17
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Arlovski's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Lesnar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:17
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Arlovski has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Arlovski is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Arlovski is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Lesnar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Arlovski’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Brock
Lesnar
In 9:17, how much damage will he do? Lesnar Arlovski
Significant Strikes46
Lesnar's good striking offense may be a factor against Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 84 Significant Strikes in 9:17
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lesnar's excellent takedown offense is matched by Arlovski's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:17
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lesnar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lesnar is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lesnar is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Arlovski 9.0
fighter Lesnar 8.9
Great striking by Arlovski
52 strikes Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
2 strikes Oct 07, 2005 vs Buentello
9 strikes Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Arlovski 7.2
fighter Lesnar 9.3
Great takedowns by Lesnar
1 takedown Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
1 takedown Jul 11, 2009 vs Mir
2 takedowns Nov 15, 2008 vs Couture

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Arlovski 9.0
fighter Lesnar 7.7
Great knockouts by Arlovski
Round 3 Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
Round 1 Oct 07, 2005 vs Buentello
Round 1 Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Arlovski 6.6
fighter Lesnar 7.8
Great submissions by Lesnar
Round 2 Jul 03, 2010 vs Carwin
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Soo Kim

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Arlovski 8.2
fighter Lesnar 8.2
Fast finishes by Arlovski
673 seconds Jul 19, 2008 vs Rothwell
47 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Sylvia
119 seconds Sep 26, 2003 vs Matyushenko
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Arlovski
legend Lesnar
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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