UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Franca Nogueira vs Aldo

1,870

CageRank

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
93% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,308

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 6.9 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger jaw 9.1 vs 7.7 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.7 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 31 years vs 39 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Alexandre Franca Nogueira
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 6.6 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.9 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Franca Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 9:59, how much damage will he do? Aldo Franca Nogueira
Significant Strikes57
Aldo's good striking offense may be a factor against Franca Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 90 Significant Strikes in 9:59
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aldo's average takedown offense is matched by Franca Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:59
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Franca Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alexandre
Franca Nogueira
In 9:59, how much damage will he do? Franca Nogueira Aldo
Significant Strikes25
Franca Nogueira's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 90 Significant Strikes in 9:59
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Franca Nogueira's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:59
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Franca Nogueira is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Franca Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Franca Nogueira is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Franca Nogueira 8.2
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Franca Nogueira 6.9
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Franca Nogueira 8.4
Great submissions by Franca Nogueira
Round 2 Sep 02, 2001 vs Katsuta
Round 1 Aug 27, 2000 vs Tatsumi
Round 1 Apr 26, 1998 vs Asahi

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Franca Nogueira 8.3
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 1, 2008WEC 34
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
XR1 KO
1,8031,827
1,7561,874
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Franca Nogueira
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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