UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Casimir vs Koch

1,621

CageRank

WINNER
Koch

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
83% chance Koch
WILL WIN

1,897

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Erik Koch
Much heavier hands 7.8 vs 6.4 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.0 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
A lot taller 178 cm vs 165 cm Around 10% taller
Younger 28 years vs 36 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better submission offense 7.7 vs 7.4 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Longer reach 182 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Bendy Casimir
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.4 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly stronger jaw 8.6 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Koch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Casimir’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Erik
Koch
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Koch Casimir
Significant Strikes77
Koch's average striking offense is matched by Casimir's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Koch's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Casimir's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Koch is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Koch is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Koch has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Casimir on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Koch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Bendy
Casimir
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Casimir Koch
Significant Strikes41
Casimir's average striking offense won't be a factor against Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Casimir's average takedown offense is matched by Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Casimir is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Casimir is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Casimir is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Casimir 8.0
Great striking by Koch
40 strikes Sep 17, 2011 vs Brookins
4 strikes Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
14 strikes Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Koch 7.8
fighter Casimir 6.4
Great knockouts by Koch
Round 1 Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Rivera
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Combs

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Koch 7.7
fighter Casimir 7.4
Great submissions by Koch
Round 1 Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
Round 2 Apr 17, 2009 vs Ahrens
Round 1 Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Casimir 7.4
Fast finishes by Koch
152 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
181 seconds Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
180 seconds Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 20, 2010WEC 49
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
DECX
1,8991,843
1,8411,901
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Koch
legend Casimir
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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