UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sakurai vs Aoki

1,831

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
92% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 6.5 Around 55% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.5 More than 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.1 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 9.0 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.5 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.7 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 180 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Younger 33 years vs 41 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Hayato Sakurai
Better striker 8.5 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.5 vs 6.1 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 167 lbs vs 153 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sakurai’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 6:36, how much damage will he do? Aoki Sakurai
Significant Strikes11
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Sakurai's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 59 Significant Strikes in 6:36
Poor
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Sakurai's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:36
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Sakurai on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Hayato
Sakurai
In 6:36, how much damage will he do? Sakurai Aoki
Significant Strikes12
Sakurai's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 59 Significant Strikes in 6:36
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Sakurai's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:36
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sakurai is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sakurai is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sakurai is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Sakurai 8.5
Great striking by Sakurai
7 strikes Apr 05, 2009 vs Aoki
26 strikes Sep 25, 2005 vs Hansen
64 strikes Sep 25, 2005 vs Pulver

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Sakurai 8.7
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Sakurai 7.5
Great knockouts by Sakurai
Round 1 Apr 05, 2009 vs Aoki
Round 2 Feb 24, 2007 vs Danzig
Round 1 Sep 25, 2005 vs Pulver

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Sakurai 6.5
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Sakurai 7.5
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 5, 2009Dream 8
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR1 SUB
1,9992,142
2,0682,073
August 20, 2005Shooto - Alive Road
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
DECX
1,7521,728
1,7981,681
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Sakurai
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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