UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sakurai vs Diaz

1,831

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
86% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.5 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much taller 185 cm vs 170 cm Around 10% taller
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.5 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.4 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.6 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.5 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly younger 33 years vs 41 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 169 lbs vs 167 lbs Almost the same
Advantages for Hayato Sakurai
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sakurai’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 9:33, how much damage will he do? Diaz Sakurai
Significant Strikes61
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Sakurai's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:33
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sakurai's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:33
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Sakurai on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Hayato
Sakurai
In 9:33, how much damage will he do? Sakurai Diaz
Significant Strikes49
Sakurai's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:33
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Sakurai's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sakurai is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sakurai is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sakurai has a chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Sakurai 8.5
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Sakurai 8.7
Great takedowns by Sakurai
2 takedowns Feb 24, 2007 vs Danzig
5 takedowns Sep 25, 2005 vs Hansen
1 takedown Sep 25, 2005 vs Pulver

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Sakurai 7.5
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Sakurai 6.5
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Sakurai 7.5
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 29, 2010Dream 14
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR1 KO
1,9232,075
1,8942,105
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Sakurai
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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