UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Hirota vs Aoki

1,908

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
88% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 6.3 Around 60% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.3 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.8 More than 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 7.6 Around 30% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.4 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly longer reach 183 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 180 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly heavier 153 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 34 years vs 36 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Mizuto Hirota
Much heavier hands 7.8 vs 6.1 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.3 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hirota’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 8:42, how much damage will he do? Aoki Hirota
Significant Strikes23
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Hirota's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 78 Significant Strikes in 8:42
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Hirota's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:42
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Hirota on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mizuto
Hirota
In 8:42, how much damage will he do? Hirota Aoki
Significant Strikes14
Hirota's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 78 Significant Strikes in 8:42
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Hirota's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:42
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hirota is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hirota is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hirota is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Hirota 8.4
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Hirota 7.8
Great knockouts by Hirota
Round 4 Aug 02, 2009 vs Kitaoka
Round 1 May 10, 2009 vs Ishida
Round 2 Aug 24, 2008 vs Schultz

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Hirota 6.3
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Hirota 7.8
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR1 SUB
1,9742,148
1,9472,175
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Hirota
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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