UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cavalcante vs Aoki

1,885

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
89% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.4 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.3 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 7.7 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
A lot taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Gesias Cavalcante
Better striker 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.8 vs 6.1 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cavalcante’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 8:47, how much damage will he do? Aoki Cavalcante
Significant Strikes22
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Cavalcante's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 79 Significant Strikes in 8:47
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Cavalcante's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:47
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Cavalcante on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gesias
Cavalcante
In 8:47, how much damage will he do? Cavalcante Aoki
Significant Strikes14
Cavalcante's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 79 Significant Strikes in 8:47
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cavalcante's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:47
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cavalcante is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cavalcante is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cavalcante is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Cavalcante 8.4
Great striking by Cavalcante
15 strikes Jul 10, 2010 vs Kikuno

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Cavalcante 8.5
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Cavalcante 7.8
Great knockouts by Cavalcante
Round 3 Aug 10, 2013 vs Griffin
Round 1 Sep 17, 2007 vs Ribeiro
Round 1 Aug 05, 2006 vs Takaya

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Cavalcante 7.7
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Cavalcante 8.3
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 29, 2008Dream 2
team
VS
team
XR2 DEC
R2 KOX
2,1102,041
2,0502,101
March 15, 2008Dream 1
team
VS
team
XX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Cavalcante
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus