UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mitsuoka vs Lentz

1,846

CageRank

WINNER
Lentz

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
78% chance Lentz
WILL WIN

2,069

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nik Lentz
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly heavier hands 7.1 vs 6.6 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 8.6 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 33 years vs 41 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.9 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 173 cm vs 170 cm Almost the same
Slightly longer reach 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Eiji Mitsuoka
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.1 vs 7.5 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Lentz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mitsuoka’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nik
Lentz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Lentz Mitsuoka
Significant Strikes86
Lentz's good striking offense may be a factor against Mitsuoka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Lentz's excellent takedown offense will dominate Mitsuoka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lentz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Lentz is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lentz has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Mitsuoka on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lentz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eiji
Mitsuoka
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Mitsuoka Lentz
Significant Strikes47
Mitsuoka's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Lentz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Mitsuoka's average takedown offense is matched by Lentz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mitsuoka is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mitsuoka has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mitsuoka is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lentz 8.8
fighter Mitsuoka 8.0
Great striking by Lentz
42 strikes May 18, 2013 vs Dias
56 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Nunes
33 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Mitsuoka

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Lentz 9.3
fighter Mitsuoka 8.4
Great takedowns by Lentz
4 takedowns May 18, 2013 vs Dias
10 takedowns Jan 19, 2013 vs Nunes
4 takedowns Aug 11, 2012 vs Mitsuoka

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lentz 7.2
fighter Mitsuoka 6.6
Great knockouts by Lentz
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Mitsuoka
Round 1 Sep 06, 2006 vs Jefferson
Round 1 Sep 06, 2006 vs Vanier

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lentz 7.4
fighter Mitsuoka 8.2
Great submissions by Mitsuoka
Round 1 Aug 02, 2009 vs French
Round 1 Jan 04, 2009 vs Golyaev
Round 1 Aug 24, 2008 vs Damm

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lentz 7.5
fighter Mitsuoka 8.1
Fast finishes by Mitsuoka
111 seconds Aug 02, 2009 vs French
262 seconds Jan 04, 2009 vs Golyaev
193 seconds Aug 24, 2008 vs Damm
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 11, 2012UFC 150
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XDEC
1,8911,925
1,8461,970
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lentz
legend Mitsuoka
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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