UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Inoue vs Diaz

1,718

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
92% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.0 Around 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 6.8 More than 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 7.5 More than 30% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.5 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.1 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.2 More than 20% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.8 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Younger 33 years vs 37 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 169 lbs vs 153 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly harder to hit 8.4 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Katsuya Inoue
Much stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.6 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Inoue’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 7:34, how much damage will he do? Diaz Inoue
Significant Strikes57
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Inoue's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 68 Significant Strikes in 7:34
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Inoue's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:34
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Inoue on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Katsuya
Inoue
In 7:34, how much damage will he do? Inoue Diaz
Significant Strikes38
Inoue's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 68 Significant Strikes in 7:34
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Inoue's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:34
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Inoue is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Inoue is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Inoue has a chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Inoue 8.5
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Inoue 7.1
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Inoue 6.0
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Inoue 6.8
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 11, 2008Dream 3
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XR1 KO
1,8641,871
1,8151,920
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Inoue
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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