UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Kitaoka vs Aoki

2,015

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
80% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.4 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.2 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.1 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.1 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much taller 180 cm vs 168 cm Around 10% taller
Significantly heavier hands 6.1 vs 5.4 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 33 years vs 37 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Satoru Kitaoka
Better striker 8.0 vs 7.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kitaoka’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 9:54, how much damage will he do? Aoki Kitaoka
Significant Strikes24
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Kitaoka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 89 Significant Strikes in 9:54
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Kitaoka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:54
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Kitaoka on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Satoru
Kitaoka
In 9:54, how much damage will he do? Kitaoka Aoki
Significant Strikes11
Kitaoka's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 89 Significant Strikes in 9:54
Below average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Kitaoka's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:54
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Kitaoka is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Kitaoka has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Kitaoka has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Kitaoka 8.0
Great striking by Kitaoka
13 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Freire

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Kitaoka 8.3
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Kitaoka 5.4
Great knockouts by Aoki
Round 1 Dec 29, 2015 vs Sakuraba
Round 1 Nov 06, 2005 vs Hironaka

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Kitaoka 8.1
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Kitaoka 8.1
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR5 DEC
XR1 SUB
2,0842,224
2,0532,255
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Kitaoka
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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