UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Weidman vs Souza

2,260

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Weidman

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
52% chance Weidman
WILL WIN

2,245

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chris Weidman
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.3 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly longer reach 198 cm vs 187 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Younger 32 years vs 37 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 184 lbs vs 183 lbs Almost the same
Slightly stronger jaw 9.3 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Advantages for Ronaldo Souza
Much better submission offense 9.0 vs 7.7 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.6 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Weidman on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Souza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chris
Weidman
In 11:33, how much damage will he do? Weidman Souza
Significant Strikes35
Weidman's good striking offense won't be a factor against Souza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:33
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Weidman's excellent takedown offense is matched by Souza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:33
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Weidman has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Weidman is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Weidman has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Souza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Weidman’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ronaldo
Souza
In 11:33, how much damage will he do? Souza Weidman
Significant Strikes39
Souza's good striking offense won't be a factor against Weidman's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:33
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Souza's excellent takedown offense will dominate Weidman's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:33
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Souza is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Souza has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Souza is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Weidman 8.7
fighter Souza 8.7
Great striking by Souza
28 strikes Sep 04, 2013 vs Okami
12 strikes Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
47 strikes Aug 21, 2010 vs Kennedy

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Weidman 9.6
fighter Souza 9.2
Great takedowns by Weidman
1 takedown Dec 28, 2013 vs Silva
1 takedown Jul 06, 2013 vs Silva
4 takedowns Jan 28, 2012 vs Maia

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Weidman 8.7
fighter Souza 7.3
Great knockouts by Weidman
Round 2 Dec 28, 2013 vs Silva
Round 2 Jul 06, 2013 vs Silva
Round 2 Jul 11, 2012 vs Munoz

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Weidman 7.8
fighter Souza 9.0
Great submissions by Souza
Round 1 May 18, 2013 vs Camozzi
Round 3 Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
Round 1 Dec 19, 2009 vs Lindland

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Weidman 9.1
fighter Souza 9.4
Fast finishes by Souza
167 seconds Sep 04, 2013 vs Okami
217 seconds May 18, 2013 vs Camozzi
720 seconds Jan 29, 2011 vs Lawler
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Weidman
legend Souza
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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