UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Weidman vs Henderson

2,260

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Weidman

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
73% chance Weidman
WILL WIN

2,091

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chris Weidman
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.1 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 7.7 vs 6.3 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much younger 33 years vs 47 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly longer reach 198 cm vs 188 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly harder to hit 9.3 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Taller 188 cm vs 185 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Dan Henderson
Stronger jaw 9.9 vs 9.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.4 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier hands 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.6 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Weidman on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chris
Weidman
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Weidman Henderson
Significant Strikes67
Weidman's good striking offense may be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Weidman's excellent takedown offense is matched by Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Weidman has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Weidman is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Weidman has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Weidman’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dan
Henderson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Henderson Weidman
Significant Strikes60
Henderson's excellent striking offense is matched by Weidman's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Henderson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Weidman's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Weidman 8.7
fighter Henderson 9.0
Great striking by Henderson
77 strikes Nov 19, 2011 vs Rua
22 strikes Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
13 strikes Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Weidman 9.6
fighter Henderson 8.1
Great takedowns by Weidman
1 takedown Dec 28, 2013 vs Silva
1 takedown Jul 06, 2013 vs Silva
4 takedowns Jan 28, 2012 vs Maia

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Weidman 8.7
fighter Henderson 9.0
Great knockouts by Henderson
Round 1 Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
Round 1 Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral
Round 2 Jul 11, 2009 vs Bisping

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Weidman 7.8
fighter Henderson 6.3
Great submissions by Weidman
Round 1 Nov 19, 2011 vs Lawlor
Round 1 Jun 11, 2011 vs Bongfeldt
Round 1 Feb 20, 2009 vs Lopes

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Weidman 9.1
fighter Henderson 8.5
Fast finishes by Weidman
376 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Silva
378 seconds Jul 06, 2013 vs Silva
397 seconds Jul 11, 2012 vs Munoz
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Weidman
legend Henderson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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