UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Weidman vs Gastelum

2,260

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Weidman

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
86% chance Weidman
WILL WIN

1,949

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chris Weidman
Fast finishes 9.1 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much harder to hit 9.3 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly longer reach 198 cm vs 182 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
A lot taller 188 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Better submission offense 7.7 vs 7.5 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Younger 25 years vs 33 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Weidman on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chris
Weidman
In 7:17, how much damage will he do? Weidman Gastelum
Significant Strikes39
Weidman's good striking offense may be a factor against Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 66 Significant Strikes in 7:17
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Weidman's excellent takedown offense will dominate Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:17
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Weidman has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Weidman has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Weidman has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Weidman’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 7:17, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Weidman
Significant Strikes21
Gastelum's average striking offense won't be a factor against Weidman's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 66 Significant Strikes in 7:17
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gastelum's good takedown offense is matched by Weidman's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:17
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Weidman 8.7
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Weidman
20 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Silva
16 strikes Jul 06, 2013 vs Silva
58 strikes Jan 28, 2012 vs Maia

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Weidman 9.6
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Weidman
1 takedown Dec 28, 2013 vs Silva
1 takedown Jul 06, 2013 vs Silva
4 takedowns Jan 28, 2012 vs Maia

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Weidman 8.7
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Weidman
Round 2 Dec 28, 2013 vs Silva
Round 2 Jul 06, 2013 vs Silva
Round 2 Jul 11, 2012 vs Munoz

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Weidman 7.8
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Weidman
Round 1 Nov 19, 2011 vs Lawlor
Round 1 Jun 11, 2011 vs Bongfeldt
Round 1 Feb 20, 2009 vs Lopes

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Weidman 9.1
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Weidman
376 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Silva
378 seconds Jul 06, 2013 vs Silva
397 seconds Jul 11, 2012 vs Munoz
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Weidman
legend Gastelum
Read More
Weidman vs Silva
Fantasy Cage Match
Gastelum vs Whittaker
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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