UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cariaso vs Barao

1,960

CageRank

WINNER
Barao

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
79% chance Barao
WILL WIN

2,194

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Renan Barao
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 6.8 More than 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 8.5 vs 6.7 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 9.3 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly longer reach 179 cm vs 164 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 170 cm vs 160 cm More than 5% taller
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 31 years vs 37 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Slightly heavier 134 lbs vs 125 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Chris Cariaso
From what we can tell, Renan Barao dominates Chris Cariaso in every way.
Barao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cariaso’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Renan
Barao
In 10:51, how much damage will he do? Barao Cariaso
Significant Strikes49
Barao's good striking offense is matched by Cariaso's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:51
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Barao's average takedown offense is matched by Cariaso's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:51
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barao is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barao has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Barao has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Cariaso on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chris
Cariaso
In 10:51, how much damage will he do? Cariaso Barao
Significant Strikes43
Cariaso's average striking offense won't be a factor against Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:51
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cariaso's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:51
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cariaso is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cariaso is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cariaso has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Barao 8.9
fighter Cariaso 8.5
Great striking by Barao
36 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
85 strikes Jul 21, 2012 vs Faber
104 strikes Feb 04, 2012 vs Jorgensen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Barao 8.0
fighter Cariaso 7.8
Great takedowns by Barao
4 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
6 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Escovedo
1 takedown Jun 20, 2010 vs Leone

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Barao 7.7
fighter Cariaso 7.2
Great knockouts by Barao
Round 2 Sep 21, 2013 vs Wineland
Round 2 Aug 13, 2009 vs Sardinha
Round 3 Nov 29, 2008 vs Pinheiro

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Barao 8.5
fighter Cariaso 6.7
Great submissions by Barao
Round 4 Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
Round 1 Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Round 1 Dec 16, 2010 vs Cariaso

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Barao 8.6
fighter Cariaso 6.8
Fast finishes by Barao
335 seconds Sep 21, 2013 vs Wineland
1137 seconds Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
249 seconds Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 16, 2010WEC 53
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR1 SUB
1,8312,041
1,8082,064
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Barao
legend Cariaso
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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