UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cariaso vs Moraga

1,960

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cariaso

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
60% chance Cariaso
WILL WIN

1,891

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chris Cariaso
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier hands 7.2 vs 6.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for John Moraga
Much better submission offense 7.6 vs 6.7 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 7.5 vs 6.8 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
A lot taller 168 cm vs 160 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly longer reach 170 cm vs 164 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Younger 33 years vs 36 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better takedown defense 8.0 vs 7.8 Almost the same
Cariaso on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Moraga’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chris
Cariaso
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Cariaso Moraga
Significant Strikes72
Cariaso's average striking offense is matched by Moraga's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Cariaso's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Moraga's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cariaso is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Cariaso is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Cariaso has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Moraga on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cariaso’s defensive skills
Predictions For
John
Moraga
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Moraga Cariaso
Significant Strikes58
Moraga's average striking offense won't be a factor against Cariaso's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Moraga's average takedown offense is matched by Cariaso's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Moraga is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Moraga is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Moraga has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cariaso 8.5
fighter Moraga 8.6
Great striking by Moraga
43 strikes Jan 15, 2014 vs Ortiz
26 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs Cariaso
34 strikes Aug 04, 2012 vs Gomez

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cariaso 7.8
fighter Moraga 8.1
Great takedowns by Moraga
2 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs Cariaso

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cariaso 7.2
fighter Moraga 6.8
Great knockouts by Cariaso
Round 2 Oct 09, 2013 vs Santos
Round 2 Oct 24, 2009 vs Velasco
Round 2 May 12, 2007 vs Barrios

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cariaso 6.7
fighter Moraga 7.6
Great submissions by Moraga
Round 3 Dec 29, 2012 vs Cariaso
Round 1 Nov 05, 2011 vs Lux
Round 1 Jun 26, 2010 vs Halverson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cariaso 6.8
fighter Moraga 7.5
Fast finishes by Moraga
671 seconds Dec 29, 2012 vs Cariaso
226 seconds Aug 04, 2012 vs Gomez
49 seconds Nov 05, 2011 vs Lux
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 29, 2012UFC 155
team
VS
team
XR3 SUB
DECX
1,9191,858
1,8611,917
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cariaso
legend Moraga
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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