UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Iaquinta vs Chiesa

1,804

CageRank

WINNER
Chiesa

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
70% chance Chiesa
WILL WIN

1,954

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Michael Chiesa
Much better submission offense 8.8 vs 6.6 Around 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much taller 185 cm vs 170 cm Around 10% taller
Much longer reach 192 cm vs 177 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly fast finishes 8.2 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 8.5 vs 8.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.0 vs 7.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Al Iaquinta
Significantly heavier hands 7.3 vs 6.2 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Longer winning streak 5 fights vs 3 fights More than 65% longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Chiesa on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Iaquinta’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Chiesa
In 8:47, how much damage will he do? Chiesa Iaquinta
Significant Strikes36
Chiesa's average striking offense is matched by Iaquinta's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 79 Significant Strikes in 8:47
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Chiesa's good takedown offense may be a factor against Iaquinta's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:47
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Chiesa is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Chiesa has a very good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Chiesa is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Iaquinta on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Chiesa’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Al
Iaquinta
In 8:47, how much damage will he do? Iaquinta Chiesa
Significant Strikes40
Iaquinta's good striking offense may be a factor against Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 79 Significant Strikes in 8:47
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Iaquinta's average takedown offense is matched by Chiesa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:47
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Iaquinta is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Iaquinta is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Iaquinta has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Chiesa 8.1
fighter Iaquinta 8.7
Great striking by Iaquinta
49 strikes Feb 01, 2014 vs Lee
85 strikes Oct 26, 2013 vs Hallmann
80 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Couture

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Chiesa 8.9
fighter Iaquinta 8.2
Great takedowns by Chiesa
1 takedown Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
1 takedown Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
1 takedown Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Chiesa 6.2
fighter Iaquinta 7.3
Great knockouts by Iaquinta
Round 1 Sep 09, 2011 vs Miglioli
Round 1 Nov 20, 2009 vs Key
Round 1 Jun 12, 2009 vs Sylvester

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Chiesa 8.8
fighter Iaquinta 6.6
Great submissions by Chiesa
Round 2 Nov 06, 2013 vs Smith
Round 2 Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
Round 1 Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Chiesa 8.2
fighter Iaquinta 7.4
Fast finishes by Chiesa
449 seconds Feb 23, 2013 vs Kuivanen
167 seconds Jun 01, 2012 vs Iaquinta
133 seconds Jul 16, 2011 vs Coble
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 1, 2012TUF 15 Finale
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,6831,791
1,6481,826
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Chiesa
legend Iaquinta
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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