UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Barboza vs MacDonald

2,053

CageRank

WINNER
MacDonald

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
70% chance MacDonald
WILL WIN

2,198

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Rory MacDonald
Much stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 7.6 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.7 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.6 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 29 years vs 32 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 194 cm vs 191 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Edson Barboza
Much heavier hands 9.1 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
MacDonald on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barboza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rory
MacDonald
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? MacDonald Barboza
Significant Strikes95
MacDonald's excellent striking offense will dominate Barboza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
MacDonald's good takedown offense may be a factor against Barboza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
MacDonald has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
MacDonald is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
MacDonald has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Barboza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against MacDonald’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Edson
Barboza
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Barboza MacDonald
Significant Strikes75
Barboza's excellent striking offense will dominate MacDonald's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Barboza's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against MacDonald's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barboza has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barboza is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Barboza is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter MacDonald 9.1
fighter Barboza 9.1
Great striking by Barboza
43 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Castillo
26 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
47 strikes Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter MacDonald 8.8
fighter Barboza 7.6
Great takedowns by MacDonald
1 takedown Dec 08, 2012 vs Penn
7 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Diaz
2 takedowns Jan 11, 2010 vs Guymon

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter MacDonald 8.2
fighter Barboza 9.1
Great knockouts by Barboza
Round 2 Jul 06, 2013 vs Oliveira
Round 1 Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
Round 3 Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter MacDonald 7.5
fighter Barboza 6.7
Great submissions by MacDonald
Round 1 Jan 11, 2010 vs Guymon
Round 1 Jun 17, 2006 vs Mein
Round 1 Oct 15, 2005 vs Thiara

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter MacDonald 8.4
fighter Barboza 8.7
Fast finishes by Barboza
404 seconds Jul 06, 2013 vs Oliveira
158 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
722 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend MacDonald
legend Barboza
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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