UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Barboza vs Aldo

2,053

CageRank

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
81% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,308

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.6 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.6 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Advantages for Edson Barboza
Significantly longer reach 191 cm vs 178 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 180 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier hands 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission offense 6.7 vs 6.6 Almost the same
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barboza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 9:40, how much damage will he do? Aldo Barboza
Significant Strikes57
Aldo's good striking offense may be a factor against Barboza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:40
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aldo's average takedown offense is matched by Barboza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:40
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Barboza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Edson
Barboza
In 9:40, how much damage will he do? Barboza Aldo
Significant Strikes44
Barboza's excellent striking offense is matched by Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:40
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Barboza's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:40
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barboza has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barboza is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Barboza is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Barboza 9.1
Great striking by Barboza
43 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Castillo
26 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
47 strikes Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Barboza 7.6
Great takedowns by Aldo
5 takedowns Aug 03, 2013 vs Sung Jung
5 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Hominick
1 takedown Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Barboza 9.1
Great knockouts by Barboza
Round 2 Jul 06, 2013 vs Oliveira
Round 1 Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
Round 3 Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Barboza 6.7
Great submissions by Barboza
Round 1 Nov 20, 2009 vs King

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Barboza 8.7
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Barboza
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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