UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Barboza vs Nurmagomedov

2,053

CageRank

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
69% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much longer winning streak 24 fights vs 3 fights 8x longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 7.6 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.7 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 8.8 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 29 years vs 31 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Edson Barboza
Much heavier hands 9.1 vs 7.7 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly longer reach 191 cm vs 178 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barboza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Barboza
Significant Strikes82
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against Barboza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense may be a factor against Barboza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Barboza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Edson
Barboza
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Barboza Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes79
Barboza's excellent striking offense will dominate Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Barboza's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barboza has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barboza is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Barboza is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter Barboza 9.1
Great striking by Barboza
43 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Castillo
26 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
47 strikes Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter Barboza 7.6
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter Barboza 9.1
Great knockouts by Barboza
Round 2 Jul 06, 2013 vs Oliveira
Round 1 Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
Round 3 Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter Barboza 6.7
Great submissions by Nurmagomedov
Round 3 Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus
Round 1 Aug 05, 2011 vs Mamedov
Round 1 Nov 03, 2009 vs Shamhalaev

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter Barboza 8.7
Fast finishes by Barboza
404 seconds Jul 06, 2013 vs Oliveira
158 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
722 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend Barboza
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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