UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Pettis vs Castillo

2,178

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Pettis

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
74% chance Pettis
WILL WIN

2,001

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Anthony Pettis
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 7.7 More than 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 6.7 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly younger 30 years vs 38 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 9.4 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 184 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Slightly better submission defense 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Advantages for Danny Castillo
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Pettis on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Castillo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Anthony
Pettis
In 9:11, how much damage will he do? Pettis Castillo
Significant Strikes31
Pettis's average striking offense won't be a factor against Castillo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 83 Significant Strikes in 9:11
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Pettis's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Castillo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:11
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Pettis has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Pettis has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Pettis is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Castillo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Pettis’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Danny
Castillo
In 9:11, how much damage will he do? Castillo Pettis
Significant Strikes24
Castillo's average striking offense won't be a factor against Pettis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 83 Significant Strikes in 9:11
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Castillo's excellent takedown offense will dominate Pettis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:11
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Castillo is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Castillo is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Castillo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Pettis 8.6
fighter Castillo 8.4
Great striking by Pettis
9 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Henderson
18 strikes Jan 26, 2013 vs Cerrone
9 strikes Feb 26, 2012 vs Lauzon

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Pettis 8.0
fighter Castillo 9.2
Great takedowns by Castillo
6 takedowns Jul 27, 2013 vs Means
4 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Sass
5 takedowns Mar 03, 2011 vs Stevenson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Pettis 8.3
fighter Castillo 7.9
Great knockouts by Pettis
Round 1 Jan 26, 2013 vs Cerrone
Round 1 Feb 26, 2012 vs Lauzon
Round 1 Mar 06, 2010 vs Castillo

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Pettis 8.4
fighter Castillo 6.8
Great submissions by Pettis
Round 1 Aug 31, 2013 vs Henderson
Round 3 Aug 18, 2010 vs Roller
Round 2 Apr 24, 2010 vs Karalexis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Pettis 9.3
fighter Castillo 7.7
Fast finishes by Pettis
271 seconds Aug 31, 2013 vs Henderson
155 seconds Jan 26, 2013 vs Cerrone
81 seconds Feb 26, 2012 vs Lauzon
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 6, 2010WEC 47
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
R2 SUBX
1,7711,754
1,8191,707
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Pettis
legend Castillo
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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