UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Aoki

2,091

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
72% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 6.3 More than 55% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.9 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.1 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly younger 34 years vs 47 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.8 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Dan Henderson
Much heavier hands 9.0 vs 6.1 More than 45% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.0 vs 7.4 More than 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.9 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 184 lbs vs 153 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.4 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 11:32, how much damage will he do? Aoki Henderson
Significant Strikes20
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:32
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense is matched by Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:32
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dan
Henderson
In 11:32, how much damage will he do? Henderson Aoki
Significant Strikes31
Henderson's excellent striking offense is matched by Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:32
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Henderson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:32
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Henderson 9.0
Great striking by Henderson
77 strikes Nov 19, 2011 vs Rua
22 strikes Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
13 strikes Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Henderson 8.1
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Henderson 9.0
Great knockouts by Henderson
Round 1 Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
Round 1 Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral
Round 2 Jul 11, 2009 vs Bisping

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Henderson 6.3
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Henderson 8.5
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Henderson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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