UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Machida

2,091

CageRank

WINNER
Machida

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
60% chance Machida
WILL WIN

2,164

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Lyoto Machida
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.9 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 39 years vs 47 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better takedown defense 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission offense 6.8 vs 6.3 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Advantages for Dan Henderson
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.9 vs 9.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 8.0 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Machida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lyoto
Machida
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Machida Henderson
Significant Strikes67
Machida's good striking offense may be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Machida's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Machida is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Machida has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Machida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dan
Henderson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Henderson Machida
Significant Strikes39
Henderson's excellent striking offense is matched by Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Henderson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Machida 8.7
fighter Henderson 9.0
Great striking by Henderson
77 strikes Nov 19, 2011 vs Rua
22 strikes Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
13 strikes Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Machida 8.0
fighter Henderson 8.1
Great takedowns by Henderson
1 takedown Nov 19, 2011 vs Rua
4 takedowns Jan 17, 2009 vs Franklin
3 takedowns Feb 24, 2007 vs Silva

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Machida 8.6
fighter Henderson 9.0
Great knockouts by Henderson
Round 1 Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
Round 1 Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral
Round 2 Jul 11, 2009 vs Bisping

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Machida 6.8
fighter Henderson 6.3
Great submissions by Machida
Round 2 Dec 29, 2007 vs Thierry Sokoudjou
Round 1 Mar 14, 2004 vs McDonald

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Machida 8.2
fighter Henderson 8.5
Fast finishes by Henderson
252 seconds Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
113 seconds Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral
500 seconds Jul 11, 2009 vs Bisping
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 23, 2013UFC 157
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R1 KOX
2,2592,123
2,1912,192
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Machida
legend Henderson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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