UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Henderson vs Boetsch

2,091

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Henderson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
64% chance Henderson
WILL WIN

1,989

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Dan Henderson
Significantly heavier hands 9.0 vs 7.6 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 9.9 vs 8.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Tim Boetsch
Significantly better submission offense 7.4 vs 6.3 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly younger 37 years vs 47 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Henderson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Boetsch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dan
Henderson
In 11:44, how much damage will he do? Henderson Boetsch
Significant Strikes68
Henderson's excellent striking offense will dominate Boetsch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 106 Significant Strikes in 11:44
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Henderson's average takedown offense is matched by Boetsch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:44
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Henderson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Henderson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Henderson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Boetsch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Henderson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tim
Boetsch
In 11:44, how much damage will he do? Boetsch Henderson
Significant Strikes47
Boetsch's average striking offense is matched by Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 106 Significant Strikes in 11:44
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Boetsch's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Henderson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:44
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Boetsch is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Boetsch is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Boetsch has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Boetsch 8.5
Great striking by Henderson
77 strikes Nov 19, 2011 vs Rua
22 strikes Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
13 strikes Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Henderson 8.1
fighter Boetsch 8.2
Great takedowns by Boetsch
4 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Ring
7 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Grove
3 takedowns Aug 07, 2010 vs Brown

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Henderson 9.0
fighter Boetsch 7.6
Great knockouts by Henderson
Round 1 Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
Round 1 Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral
Round 2 Jul 11, 2009 vs Bisping

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Henderson 6.3
fighter Boetsch 7.4
Great submissions by Boetsch
Round 2 Jan 16, 2010 vs Sylvester Lindsey
Round 2 Aug 15, 2009 vs Stark
Round 2 Jul 28, 2007 vs Barrett

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Henderson 8.5
fighter Boetsch 7.8
Fast finishes by Henderson
252 seconds Jul 30, 2011 vs Emelianenko
113 seconds Dec 04, 2010 vs Sobral
500 seconds Jul 11, 2009 vs Bisping
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 6, 2015UFC Fight Night 68
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Henderson
legend Boetsch
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 2 comments.
Nope, this system is accurate. Hendo KTFO Tim.
So, can we all just admit that this system is broken?
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