UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aldo vs Hominick

2,308

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
96% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

1,766

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.6 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.0 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.8 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 30 years vs 34 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 178 cm vs 174 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Mark Hominick
Significantly better submission offense 7.4 vs 6.6 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 173 cm vs 170 cm Almost the same
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hominick’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aldo Hominick
Significant Strikes102
Aldo's good striking offense may be a factor against Hominick's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Poor
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aldo's average takedown offense is matched by Hominick's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Hominick on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mark
Hominick
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Hominick Aldo
Significant Strikes51
Hominick's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Hominick's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hominick is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hominick is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hominick is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Hominick 8.6
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Hominick 7.0
Great takedowns by Aldo
5 takedowns Aug 03, 2013 vs Sung Jung
5 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Hominick
1 takedown Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Hominick 7.6
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Hominick 7.4
Great submissions by Hominick
Round 1 Jan 10, 2010 vs Caraway
Round 2 Mar 04, 2006 vs Edwards
Round 1 Apr 02, 2005 vs Vigneault

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Hominick 7.8
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 30, 2011UFC 129
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
R2 KOX
2,1421,994
2,1721,964
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Hominick
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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