UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aldo vs Diaz

2,308

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
81% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.4 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 7.9 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Slightly stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 6.6 More than 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
A lot taller 183 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aldo Diaz
Significant Strikes76
Aldo's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aldo's average takedown offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Aldo
Significant Strikes74
Diaz's excellent striking offense is matched by Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Diaz 9.3
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Diaz 7.8
Great takedowns by Aldo
5 takedowns Aug 03, 2013 vs Sung Jung
5 takedowns Apr 30, 2011 vs Hominick
1 takedown Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Diaz 7.4
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Diaz 8.6
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Diaz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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