UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aldo vs Florian

2,308

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
81% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,061

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.2 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly younger 30 years vs 41 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.4 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Kenny Florian
Much better submission offense 8.8 vs 6.6 Around 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 7.9 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly longer reach 188 cm vs 178 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 178 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Harder to hit 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Florian’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aldo Florian
Significant Strikes53
Aldo's good striking offense won't be a factor against Florian's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aldo's average takedown offense is matched by Florian's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Florian on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kenny
Florian
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Florian Aldo
Significant Strikes49
Florian's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Florian's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Florian is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Florian has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Florian is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Florian 8.5
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Florian 9.0
Great takedowns by Florian
1 takedown Mar 31, 2010 vs Gomi
1 takedown Nov 15, 2008 vs Stevenson
5 takedowns Aug 09, 2008 vs Huerta

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Florian 7.2
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Florian 8.8
Great submissions by Florian
Round 3 Mar 31, 2010 vs Gomi
Round 1 Nov 15, 2008 vs Stevenson
Round 1 Sep 19, 2007 vs Thomas

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Florian 8.5
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 8, 2011UFC 136
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
R1 KOX
2,1722,101
2,2122,061
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Florian
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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