UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aldo vs Ferguson

2,308

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
86% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Slightly younger 31 years vs 33 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Tony Ferguson
Significantly better submission offense 7.2 vs 6.6 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 183 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.9 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferguson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aldo Ferguson
Significant Strikes83
Aldo's good striking offense may be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aldo's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Ferguson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Ferguson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Ferguson Aldo
Significant Strikes52
Ferguson's good striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Ferguson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferguson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ferguson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ferguson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Ferguson 8.6
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Ferguson 8.1
Great takedowns by Ferguson
1 takedown Dec 03, 2011 vs Edwards
2 takedowns Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Ferguson 7.2
Great submissions by Ferguson
Round 1 Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
Round 1 Jan 04, 2009 vs Park
Round 2 Sep 13, 2008 vs Schilling

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Fast finishes by Ferguson
112 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
300 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
1055 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Ferguson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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