UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aldo vs Barao

2,308

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
66% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,194

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Heavier 144 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Renan Barao
Much better submission offense 8.5 vs 6.6 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 12:58, how much damage will he do? Aldo Barao
Significant Strikes61
Aldo's good striking offense is matched by Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 117 Significant Strikes in 12:58
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aldo's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:58
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Barao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Renan
Barao
In 12:58, how much damage will he do? Barao Aldo
Significant Strikes52
Barao's good striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 117 Significant Strikes in 12:58
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Barao's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:58
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barao is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barao has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Barao is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Barao 8.9
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Barao 8.0
Great takedowns by Barao
4 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
6 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Escovedo
1 takedown Jun 20, 2010 vs Leone

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Barao 7.7
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Barao 8.5
Great submissions by Barao
Round 4 Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
Round 1 Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Round 1 Dec 16, 2010 vs Cariaso

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Barao 8.6
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Barao
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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