UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aldo vs Nurmagomedov

2,308

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
66% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.6 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 7.9 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 178 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 29 years vs 31 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 11:34, how much damage will he do? Aldo Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes54
Aldo's good striking offense is matched by Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:34
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aldo's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:34
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 11:34, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Aldo
Significant Strikes41
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:34
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:34
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
Great submissions by Nurmagomedov
Round 3 Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus
Round 1 Aug 05, 2011 vs Mamedov
Round 1 Nov 03, 2009 vs Shamhalaev

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Nurmagomedov
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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