UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aldo vs Maruyama

2,308

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
97% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

1,717

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 7.8 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.6 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 6.6 vs 6.2 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 31 years vs 34 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Shoji Maruyama
Stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.9 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maruyama’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aldo Maruyama
Significant Strikes76
Aldo's good striking offense may be a factor against Maruyama's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aldo's average takedown offense may be a factor against Maruyama's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Maruyama on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shoji
Maruyama
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maruyama Aldo
Significant Strikes43
Maruyama's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Maruyama's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maruyama is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maruyama is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maruyama is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Maruyama 8.3
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Maruyama 7.7
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Maruyama 6.2
Great submissions by Aldo
Round 1 Jul 09, 2005 vs Silverio
Round 1 Mar 19, 2005 vs de Paula

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Maruyama 7.8
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R2 KOX
1,7981,644
1,8271,615
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Maruyama
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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