UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Shields vs Palhares

2,188

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Shields

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
62% chance Shields
WILL WIN

2,100

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jake Shields
Better striker 8.6 vs 7.5 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much taller 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 8.3 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly stronger jaw 9.5 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better takedown defense 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier hands 6.7 vs 6.3 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission defense 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Rousimar Palhares
Much better submission offense 9.7 vs 8.0 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.6 vs 8.3 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 36 years vs 38 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Shields on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Palhares’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jake
Shields
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Shields Palhares
Significant Strikes62
Shields's good striking offense is matched by Palhares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Shields's good takedown offense is matched by Palhares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Shields is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Shields has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Shields has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Palhares on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Shields’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rousimar
Palhares
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Palhares Shields
Significant Strikes27
Palhares's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Shields's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Palhares's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Shields's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Palhares is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Palhares has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Palhares is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Shields 8.6
fighter Palhares 7.5
Great striking by Shields
35 strikes Oct 09, 2013 vs Maia
73 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Henderson
17 strikes Jun 06, 2009 vs Lawler

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Shields 9.1
fighter Palhares 8.3
Great takedowns by Shields
1 takedown Oct 09, 2013 vs Maia
4 takedowns Apr 17, 2010 vs Henderson
1 takedown Jul 26, 2008 vs Thompson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Shields 6.7
fighter Palhares 6.3
Great knockouts by Shields
Round 1 Sep 15, 2007 vs Verissimo
Round 2 Sep 09, 2006 vs Berger
Round 1 Oct 23, 1999 vs Harrison

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Shields 8.0
fighter Palhares 9.7
Great submissions by Palhares
Round 1 Oct 09, 2013 vs Pierce
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Drwal
Round 2 Dec 12, 2009 vs Linhares

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Shields 8.3
fighter Palhares 9.6
Fast finishes by Palhares
31 seconds Oct 09, 2013 vs Pierce
404 seconds Mar 03, 2011 vs Branch
45 seconds Mar 27, 2010 vs Drwal
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 1, 2015WSOF 22
team
VS
team
XR3 SUB
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Shields
legend Palhares
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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