UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs Santiago

2,102

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
73% chance Maia
WILL WIN

1,933

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 7.7 Around 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.4 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Jorge Santiago
Significantly heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.2 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.7 vs 9.3 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Younger 36 years vs 39 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Santiago’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Santiago
Significant Strikes53
Maia's average striking offense is matched by Santiago's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Santiago's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Santiago on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jorge
Santiago
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Santiago Maia
Significant Strikes48
Santiago's average striking offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Santiago's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Santiago has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Santiago has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Santiago is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Maia 8.3
fighter Santiago 8.3
Great striking by Santiago
11 strikes Nov 16, 2007 vs Prangley
2 strikes Nov 16, 2007 vs Salmon
9 strikes Jun 28, 2006 vs Levens

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter Santiago 7.7
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter Santiago 8.3
Great knockouts by Santiago
Round 5 Aug 22, 2010 vs Misaki
Round 3 Nov 01, 2008 vs Nakamura
Round 1 Nov 16, 2007 vs Prangley

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter Santiago 8.2
Great submissions by Santiago
Round 1 Jun 15, 2012 vs Guthrie
Round 5 Jan 04, 2009 vs Misaki
Round 1 Sep 01, 2007 vs Horn

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter Santiago 8.7
Fast finishes by Santiago
1406 seconds Jan 04, 2009 vs Misaki
151 seconds Nov 16, 2007 vs Prangley
182 seconds Sep 01, 2007 vs Horn
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 8, 2011UFC 136
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XR1 KO
2,0272,054
2,0812,000
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend Santiago
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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