UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs Nelson

2,102

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
56% chance Maia
WILL WIN

2,061

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.4 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.7 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Gunnar Nelson
Much better submission offense 9.4 vs 8.1 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly younger 29 years vs 40 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Nelson
Significant Strikes58
Maia's average striking offense is matched by Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gunnar
Nelson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nelson Maia
Significant Strikes52
Nelson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nelson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Maia 8.3
fighter Nelson 8.5
Great striking by Nelson
42 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs Santiago
9 strikes Sep 29, 2012 vs Johnson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter Nelson 8.7
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter Nelson 7.1
Great knockouts by Maia
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 May 19, 2007 vs Stout
Round 1 Sep 21, 2001 vs Sosa

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter Nelson 9.4
Great submissions by Nelson
Round 1 Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
Round 1 Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
Round 1 Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter Nelson 9.0
Fast finishes by Nelson
261 seconds Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
231 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
171 seconds Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 12, 2015UFC 194
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend Nelson
Read More
Maia vs St. Pierre
Fantasy Cage Match
Nelson vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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