UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs Marquardt

2,102

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
59% chance Maia
WILL WIN

2,037

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.4 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.2 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Nate Marquardt
Much heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.2 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.3 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Longer reach 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 38 years vs 40 years 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Marquardt’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Marquardt
Significant Strikes50
Maia's average striking offense won't be a factor against Marquardt's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Maia's excellent takedown offense is matched by Marquardt's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Marquardt on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Marquardt
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Marquardt Maia
Significant Strikes64
Marquardt's good striking offense is matched by Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Marquardt's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Marquardt has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Marquardt is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Marquardt is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Maia 8.3
fighter Marquardt 8.8
Great striking by Marquardt
59 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Woodley
1 strike Aug 29, 2009 vs Maia
22 strikes Sep 06, 2008 vs Kampmann

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter Marquardt 8.4
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter Marquardt 8.2
Great knockouts by Marquardt
Round 4 Jul 14, 2012 vs Woodley
Round 1 Aug 29, 2009 vs Maia
Round 1 Sep 06, 2008 vs Kampmann

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter Marquardt 7.9
Great submissions by Maia
Round 1 Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Round 2 Apr 19, 2008 vs Herman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter Marquardt 8.6
Fast finishes by Marquardt
208 seconds Sep 15, 2010 vs Palhares
21 seconds Aug 29, 2009 vs Maia
82 seconds Sep 06, 2008 vs Kampmann
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 29, 2009UFC 102
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
R1 SUBX
2,0812,077
2,0312,128
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend Marquardt
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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