UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs Story

2,102

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
65% chance Maia
WILL WIN

1,994

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.6 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly fast finishes 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.5 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Rick Story
Significantly better striker 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 33 years vs 39 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.5 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier hands 7.4 vs 7.2 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Story’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Story
Significant Strikes50
Maia's average striking offense won't be a factor against Story's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Story's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Story on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rick
Story
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Story Maia
Significant Strikes63
Story's good striking offense is matched by Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Story's excellent takedown offense is matched by Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Story is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Story is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Story has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Maia 8.3
fighter Story 8.8
Great striking by Story
71 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs Ebersole
20 strikes Mar 16, 2013 vs Mulhern
62 strikes May 28, 2011 vs Alves

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter Story 9.2
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter Story 7.4
Great knockouts by Story
Round 1 Mar 16, 2013 vs Mulhern
Round 2 Aug 07, 2010 vs Hazelett
Round 2 Jan 12, 2008 vs Paul

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter Story 7.5
Great submissions by Maia
Round 1 Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Round 2 Apr 19, 2008 vs Herman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter Story 7.8
Fast finishes by Maia
150 seconds Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
47 seconds Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
157 seconds Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 13, 2012UFC 153
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
DECX
2,0571,996
2,0981,955
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend Story
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus