UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs MacDonald

2,102

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
87% chance Maia
WILL WIN

1,766

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 7.6 More than 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.4 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 8.3 vs 7.5 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.2 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly fast finishes 8.5 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 7.2 vs 6.6 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.5 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Slightly younger 39 years vs 41 years Around 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Jason MacDonald
Much longer reach 203 cm vs 183 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against MacDonald’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia MacDonald
Significant Strikes63
Maia's average striking offense is matched by MacDonald's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate MacDonald's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
MacDonald on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jason
MacDonald
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? MacDonald Maia
Significant Strikes26
MacDonald's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
MacDonald's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
MacDonald is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
MacDonald is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
MacDonald is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Maia 8.3
fighter MacDonald 7.5
Great striking by Maia
12 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
24 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
6 strikes Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter MacDonald 7.6
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter MacDonald 6.6
Great knockouts by Maia
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 May 19, 2007 vs Stout
Round 1 Sep 21, 2001 vs Sosa

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter MacDonald 7.9
Great submissions by Maia
Round 1 Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Round 2 Apr 19, 2008 vs Herman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter MacDonald 7.9
Fast finishes by Maia
150 seconds Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
47 seconds Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
157 seconds Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 9, 2008UFC 87
team
VS
team
R3 SUBX
R1 SUBX
1,9401,940
1,9901,890
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend MacDonald
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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