UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs Jensen

2,102

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
76% chance Maia
WILL WIN

1,900

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 7.7 Around 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 7.7 More than 25% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.1 More than 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Longer winning streak 7 fights vs 6 fights More than 15% longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Better striker 8.3 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Advantages for Ryan Jensen
Significantly fast finishes 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 7.8 vs 7.2 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission offense 8.4 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jensen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 10:06, how much damage will he do? Maia Jensen
Significant Strikes38
Maia's average striking offense is matched by Jensen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:06
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Jensen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:06
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Jensen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ryan
Jensen
In 10:06, how much damage will he do? Jensen Maia
Significant Strikes28
Jensen's average striking offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:06
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Jensen's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:06
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jensen is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jensen has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jensen is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Maia 8.3
fighter Jensen 8.1
Great striking by Maia
12 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
24 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
6 strikes Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter Jensen 7.7
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter Jensen 7.8
Great knockouts by Jensen
Round 1 Jul 26, 2008 vs Praschak
Round 1 Jun 20, 2008 vs Whitesel
Round 1 Aug 17, 2002 vs Stamp

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter Jensen 8.4
Great submissions by Jensen
Round 1 Jul 27, 2013 vs Moreno
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Forbes
Round 1 May 20, 2006 vs Kimmons

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter Jensen 9.1
Fast finishes by Jensen
192 seconds Jul 27, 2013 vs Moreno
66 seconds May 29, 2010 vs Forbes
56 seconds Aug 17, 2002 vs Stamp
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 20, 2007UFC 77
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
XR2 SUB
1,8281,846
1,8801,793
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend Jensen
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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