UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs Nascimento

2,102

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
91% chance Maia
WILL WIN

1,710

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 7.9 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.2 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly fast finishes 8.5 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Heavier hands 7.2 vs 7.0 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Fabio Nascimento
Much heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better striker 8.5 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nascimento’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Nascimento
Significant Strikes70
Maia's average striking offense is matched by Nascimento's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nascimento's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Nascimento on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fabio
Nascimento
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nascimento Maia
Significant Strikes54
Nascimento's average striking offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nascimento's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nascimento is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nascimento is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nascimento is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter Nascimento 8.2
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter Nascimento 7.0
Great knockouts by Maia
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 May 19, 2007 vs Stout
Round 1 Sep 21, 2001 vs Sosa

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter Nascimento 7.7
Great submissions by Maia
Round 1 Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Round 2 Apr 19, 2008 vs Herman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter Nascimento 7.5
Fast finishes by Maia
150 seconds Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
47 seconds Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
157 seconds Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
R2 SUBX
1,6691,667
1,7191,617
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend Nascimento
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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