UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs Masvidal

2,102

CageRank

WINNER
Masvidal

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
53% chance Masvidal
WILL WIN

2,125

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jorge Masvidal
Significantly better striker 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 32 years vs 39 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.5 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier hands 7.5 vs 7.2 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.5 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.7 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 8.1 vs 6.9 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly fast finishes 8.5 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly longer winning streak 6 fights vs 3 fights 2x longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Slightly better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Masvidal on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jorge
Masvidal
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Masvidal Maia
Significant Strikes62
Masvidal's good striking offense is matched by Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Masvidal's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Masvidal is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Masvidal is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Masvidal has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Masvidal’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Masvidal
Significant Strikes54
Maia's average striking offense is matched by Masvidal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Masvidal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Masvidal 8.8
fighter Maia 8.3
Great striking by Masvidal
50 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Means
82 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Wilcox
56 strikes Mar 05, 2011 vs Evangelista

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Masvidal 8.7
fighter Maia 9.7
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Masvidal 7.5
fighter Maia 7.2
Great knockouts by Masvidal
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Kitaoka
Round 1 Apr 03, 2009 vs Agallar
Round 1 Sep 28, 2008 vs Schultz

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Masvidal 6.9
fighter Maia 8.1
Great submissions by Maia
Round 1 Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Round 2 Apr 19, 2008 vs Herman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Masvidal 7.6
fighter Maia 8.5
Fast finishes by Maia
150 seconds Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
47 seconds Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
157 seconds Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Masvidal
legend Maia
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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