UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs Nurmagomedov

2,102

CageRank

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
63% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Significantly younger 28 years vs 39 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Advantages for Demian Maia
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Maia
Significant Strikes58
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense is matched by Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes51
Maia's average striking offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter Maia 8.3
Great striking by Nurmagomedov
54 strikes Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
22 strikes Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
25 strikes Jul 07, 2012 vs Tibau

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter Maia 9.7
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter Maia 7.2
Great knockouts by Nurmagomedov
Round 1 Jan 19, 2013 vs Tavares
Round 1 Oct 22, 2011 vs Santos
Round 2 Feb 12, 2011 vs Agafonov

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter Maia 8.1
Great submissions by Maia
Round 1 Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Round 2 Apr 19, 2008 vs Herman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter Maia 8.5
Fast finishes by Maia
150 seconds Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
47 seconds Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
157 seconds Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend Maia
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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