UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs Gracie

2,102

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
81% chance Maia
WILL WIN

1,849

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.0 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.4 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier hands 7.2 vs 7.0 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Roger Gracie
Much better submission offense 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly longer reach 201 cm vs 183 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier 186 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 36 years vs 39 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gracie’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Gracie
Significant Strikes48
Maia's average striking offense won't be a factor against Gracie's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Gracie's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Gracie on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roger
Gracie
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Gracie Maia
Significant Strikes47
Gracie's average striking offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gracie's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gracie is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gracie has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gracie is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Maia 8.3
fighter Gracie 8.3
Great striking by Gracie
18 strikes Jan 12, 2013 vs Smith
35 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Jardine
12 strikes Jan 29, 2011 vs Prangley

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter Gracie 8.8
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter Gracie 7.0
Great knockouts by Maia
Round 1 Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 May 19, 2007 vs Stout
Round 1 Sep 21, 2001 vs Sosa

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter Gracie 8.8
Great submissions by Gracie
Round 2 Jan 12, 2013 vs Smith
Round 1 Jan 29, 2011 vs Prangley
Round 1 Dec 02, 2006 vs Waterman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter Gracie 8.3
Fast finishes by Maia
150 seconds Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
47 seconds Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
157 seconds Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend Gracie
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus